Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
